Who will win the home run derby?Odds, favorites, and best bets for Major League Baseball 2021 games


Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the home run derby returned crashingly after being cancelled in 2020.

As usual, the game is open and bettors are making odds on some of these powerful hitters.

At the time of writing, Shohei Ohtani is the only contender in the top five of MLB’s home run leaders, but there is still a lot of pop music in this year’s Derby field. Mets slugger Pete Alonso returns to defend his 2019 title, and players such as Joey Gallo, Matt Olsen and Salvador Perez will also fight for the championship.

Of course, Otani was the biggest draw because his 32 home runs led the Grand Slam until July 8. But after seeing the No. 1 seed withdraw from three consecutive games, can you believe that Otani won this year’s derby? Or is there a better value option for bettors to focus on?

Below is an in-depth look at the 2021 home run derby odds and the best bets on Sports News.

more: Who declined the invitation to home run derby in 2021?

2021 home run derby odds

All odds are determined by DraftKings sports betting

Eight players will participate in the 2021 home run derby, and Shohei Otani (+380) It is the favorite of being a winner. Ohtani led MLB with 32 home runs and 0.700 hit rate before July 8.

Joey Gallo (+475), Pete Alonso (+550), Matt Olsen (+650) with Salvador Perez (+650) Everyone signed in at medium odds. No. 5 seed Alonso is the only low-seeded player to be favored in the first round. He will face No. 4 seed Perez.

Trevor Story (+800), Juan Soto (+800) with Trey Mancini (+850) Both are considered long shots to win the game.

player Odds of winning
Otani Shohei +380
Joey Gallo +475
Pete Alonso +550
Matt Olsen +650
Salvador Perez +650
Trevor’s story +800
Juan Soto +800
Tre Mancini +850

(Getty Images)

2021 home run derby expert selection

The best choice to win the 2021 home run derby

Joey Gallo (+475). Gallo is in a good position before the 2021 home run derby. He is the No. 2 seed in the field and fell on the side that seems easier. The star of the Rangers will face Trevor Storey in the first round and then face the winner of the battle between Matt Olsen and Tremancini. Gallo should have an advantage in all three batsmen.

Gallo hit 23 home runs this season, and tied the league lead with 16 in unquestioned home runs. BaseballSavant.comThe other players who achieved this goal were Shohei Ohtani, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Zunino. Even more impressive is that Gallo’s 69.6 unquestioned home runs percentage ranks sixth among players with at least 15 home runs throughout the year.

Therefore, when Gallo hits home runs, he will fire them. In addition, he has 10 home runs in the past 10 games. He recovered at the right time, and if he keeps warming up, he should have a great chance to win his bracket. No matter who Gallo is, the final will be a bit difficult, but he can compete with anyone in this field.

Pete Alonso (+550). Choosing Alonso instead of Otani on the left side of the bracket is a risk, but as good as Otani, these numbers show that the 2019 home run derby champion can challenge him.

So far this season, Alonso has only hit 15 homers, but like Gallo, their performance is convincing. 11 of his 15 long balls are unquestioned home runs. His unquestioned home run rate is 73.3, ranking second among players with at least 15 home runs throughout the year, and first in eight derby games.

In addition, Alonso’s highest exit speed this season is 117.1. This is the sixth highest exit rate among Major League Baseball players. He is only behind Otani (119) among Derby participants, leading the category in this category.

Although Alonso’s path to the final was daunting—he had to beat Salvador Perez and Otani against Juan Soto to get there—he was a good pick to win. His power and strength paint a favorable picture for him. The same is true of his previous derby experience, as he hit 57 home runs in the 2019 game.

Best prop bets for home run derby in 2021

Top item bets will be posted when they become available.

The length of the longest home run-more than 512.5 feet (-110 feet). This seems to be an ridiculously high number, but a player may exceed this standard in 2021. Coors Field is a batter-friendly park. If Major League Baseball uses juice baseball in this event, it may cause the ball to go further on the field.

In the Statcast era (since 2015), there are Is a 500-foot home run launched at Coors FieldIn 2016, Giancarlo Stanton unexpectedly walked 504 feet. In 2021, the longest home run at Coors Field was hit by Ryan McMahon. It flew 478 feet at an exit speed of 109.4 mph. This is the fourth longest home run in Major League Baseball this season.

In the 1998 home run derby also held in Denver, Mark McGuire hit the ball 510 feet. This is the longest home run in the event.

None of these numbers exceed the threshold we are looking for, but they are still one of the longest home runs we have seen in recent seasons. It is worth noting that two of these occurred during the regular season, where it was difficult to hit long home runs.

In a glorious batting practice game like a home run derby, the players will definitely have the opportunity to smash the ball and send it into the Colorado night sky. This year’s game has two players ranked in the top six in terms of maximum exit speed: Otani (119 mph) and Alonso (117.1 mph). Therefore, they should be able to hit the longest home run that Derby has ever seen.

Even a professor of physics at the University of Illinois believes that many explosions will travel more than 500 feet during the Derby.

“During a home run derby, there may be more than 500 feet shots, of course I guess many are close to 500 feet,” Nathan said every time Denver Post.

Even if the ball does not completely pass the 512.5-foot mark, it seems that the player can get very close to it. Therefore, it is worth the investment.

The player with the most home runs-Shohei Ohtani (+500). This is a great way to take some action against Ohtani without choosing him to win. He is on the tough side, but he should have a chance to hit a lot of home runs because he has the best pure power and exit speed in this stacking group.

Last year, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit the most home runs in the derby (91), but still lost because Alonso defeated him in the final. Ohtani can do something similar, especially if he enters a tie-break or second round against Soto-if he improves so far.

If you bet that Gallo and Alonso will win, this is a good hedge. Because if Otani can really win the derby, he might hit the most home runs. In any case, the odds here are better than betting on him to win completely, so this is a good value.

Matt Olsen (-175) defeated Tremancini. It is difficult to oppose Mancini, who missed the All-Star Game for a year while battling colon cancer, but the data from this game shows that Olsen is a better choice.

Only 5 of Mancini’s 15 home runs this year are unquestioned home runs. The 33.3% hit rate is easily the worst in the Derby field. In addition, Olsen’s ball speed is higher than Mancini-Olsen averages 92 miles per hour, Mancini averages 88.5 miles per hour-this year has 37 barreled balls, ranking seventh in the MLB. In contrast, Mancini has 31, ranking 19th.

Mancini can contend with Olsen, but if the A team’s heavy hitter has a good night, he should send Mancini. Both are unlikely to surpass potential second-round opponent Joey Gallo, but Olsen is a better choice to stand out from this first-round match.

How many home runs will the home run derby hit in 2021?

DraftKings’ current total number of home runs made is over/under 204.5. Bettors of course want to rely on exceed There.

Since the home run derby changed its format from an outfield-based game to a time-based game, players have hit more and more home runs almost every year. In fact, according to the new rules, home runs have increased year by year except for one of the last five games.

year Total human resources
2015 159
2016 203
2017 191
2018 221
2019 year 311
2020 year Event canceled

The battle of 79 home runs between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Joc Pederson swelled the number of people in the 2019 derby. This game took three The tiebreaker ended. If there is no similar tiebreaker luck, it may be difficult for Derby to exceed the number of 311 in 2021.

Nevertheless, the event should generate quite a lot of home runs, and if all goes well, it may be close to 300. Coors Field is one of the most suitable environments for batters in the league. Major League Baseball can choose to use juiced baseball to create more home runs.

Either way, the audience can once again look forward to seeing many long balls flying through the thin air of Denver.



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