Who will win the home run derby?Odds, favorites, and best bets for Major League Baseball 2021 games

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the home run derby returned crashingly after being cancelled in 2020.

As usual, the game is open and bettors are making odds on some of these powerful hitters.

At the time of writing, Shohei Ohtani is the only contender in the top five of the MLB home run leaders, but there is still a lot of pop music in this year’s Derby field. Mets slugger Pete Alonso returns to defend his 2019 title, and players such as Joey Gallo, Matt Olsen and Salvador Perez will also fight for the championship.

Of course, Otani was the biggest draw because his 32 home runs led the Grand Slam until July 8. But after seeing the No. 1 seed withdraw from three consecutive games, can you believe that Otani won this year’s derby? Or is there a better value option for bettors to focus on?

Below is an in-depth look at the 2021 home run derby odds and the best bets on Sports News.

more: Who rejected the 2021 home run derby invitation?

2021 home run derby odds

All odds are determined by DraftKings sports betting

Eight players will participate in the 2021 home run derby, and Otani Shohei (+380) It is the favorite of being a winner. Ohtani led MLB with 32 home runs and 0.700 hit rate before July 8.

Joey Gallo (+475), Pete Alonso (+550), Matt Olsen (+650) with Salvador Perez (+650) Everyone signed in at medium odds. No. 5 seed Alonso is the only low-seeded player to be favored in the first round. He will face No. 4 seed Perez.

Trevor Story (+800), Juan Soto (+800) with Trey Mancini (+850) Both are considered long shots to win the game.

player Odds of winning
Otani Shohei +380
Joey Gallo +475
Pete Alonso +550
Matt Olsen +650
Salvador Perez +650
Trevor’s story +800
Juan Soto +800
Tre Mancini +850

(Getty Images)

2021 home run derby expert selection

The best choice to win the 2021 home run derby

Joey Gallo (+475). Gallo is in a good position before the 2021 home run derby. He is the No. 2 seed in the field and fell on the side that seems easier. The star of the Rangers will face Trevor Storey in the first round, and then face the winner of the battle between Matt Olsen and Trey Mancini. Gallo should have an advantage over all three batsmen.

Gallo hit 23 home runs this season, and tied the league lead with 16 in unquestioned home runs. BaseballSavant.comThe other players who achieved this goal were Shohei Ohtani, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Zunino. Even more impressive is that Gallo’s 69.6 points are undoubtedly ranked sixth among players with at least 15 home runs throughout the year.

Therefore, when Gallo hits home runs, he will fire them. In addition, he has 10 home runs in the past 10 games. He recovered at the right time, and if he keeps warming up, he should have a great chance of winning his championship. No matter who Gallo is, the final will be a bit difficult, but he can compete with anyone in this field.

Pete Alonso (+550). Choosing Alonso instead of Otani on the left side of the bracket is a risk, but as good as Otani, these numbers show that the 2019 home run derby champion can challenge him.

So far this season, Alonso has only hit 15 homers, but like Gallo, their performance is convincing. 11 of his 15 long balls are unquestioned home runs. His unquestioned home run rate is 73.3, ranking second among players with at least 15 home runs throughout the year, and first in eight derby games.

In addition, Alonso’s highest exit speed this season is 117.1. This is the sixth highest exit rate among Major League Baseball players. He is only behind Otani (119) among Derby participants, leading in this category.

Although Alonso’s path to the final was daunting-he had to beat Salvador Perez and Otani against Juan Soto to get there-but he was a good pick to win. His power and strength paint a favorable picture for him. The same is true of his previous derby experience, as he hit 57 home runs in the 2019 game.

Best prop bets for home run derby in 2021

Top item bets will be posted when they become available.

The length of the longest home run-more than 512.5 feet (-110 feet). This seems to be an ridiculously high number, but a player may exceed this number in 2021. Coors Field is a batter-friendly park. If Major League Baseball uses juiced baseball in this event, it may cause the ball to go further on the field.

In the Statcast era (since 2015), there are Is a 500-foot home run launched at Coors FieldIn 2016, Giancarlo Stanton unexpectedly walked 504 feet. In 2021, the longest home run at Coors Field was hit by Ryan McMahon. It flew 478 feet at an exit speed of 109.4 mph. This is the fourth longest home run in Major League Baseball this season.

In the 1998 home run derby also held in Denver, Mark McGuire hit the ball 510 feet. This is the longest home run in the event.

None of these numbers exceed the threshold we are looking for, but they are still one of the longest home runs we have seen in recent seasons. It is worth noting that two of these occurred during the regular season, where it was difficult to hit long home runs.

In a glorious batting practice game like a home run derby, the players will definitely have the opportunity to smash the ball and send it into the Colorado night sky. This year’s game has two players ranked in the top six in terms of maximum exit speed: Otani (119 mph) and Alonso (117.1 mph). Therefore, they should be able to hit the longest home run that Derby has ever seen.

Even a professor of physics at the University of Illinois believes that many explosions will travel more than 500 feet during the Derby.

“During a home run derby, there may be more than 500 feet shots, of course I guess a lot of them are closer to 500 feet,” Nathan said. Denver Post.

Even if the ball does not completely pass the 512.5-foot mark, it seems that the player can get very close to it. Therefore, it is worth the investment.

How many home runs will the home run derby hit in 2021?

There are currently no high/low prop bets on the total home runs of the 2021 home run derby, but when they are available, bettors may wish to rely on exceed.

Since the home run derby changed its format from an outfield-based game to a time-based game, players have hit more and more home runs almost every year. In fact, according to the new rules, home runs are increasing every year except for one of the last five games.

year Total human resources
2015 159
2016 203
2017 191
2018 221
2019 year 311
2020 year Event canceled

The battle of 79 home runs between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Joc Pederson swelled the number of people in the 2019 derby. This game took three The tiebreaker ended. If there is no similar tiebreaker luck, it may be difficult for Derby to exceed the number of 311 in 2021.

Nevertheless, the event should generate quite a few home runs, and if all goes well, it may be close to 300. Coors Field is one of the most suitable environments for batters in the league. Major League Baseball can choose to use juiced baseball to create more home runs.

Either way, the audience can once again look forward to seeing many long balls flying through the thin air of Denver.

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