Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor will complete their trilogy UFC 264 July 10th at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
After McGregor won the first game in the knockout round in 2014, the two will face each other in a rubber match, and Boyle regained the favor earlier this year.
Not only is it fighting for bragging rights, but it will also have a major impact on Charles Oliveira’s lightweight division, where he is currently the king of the division.
With so many bets, potential bettors have many opportunities to find value, and sports news provides their insights on how to bet this weekend.
All odds are provided by FanDuel
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor at UFC 264 odds 3
- Dustin Poirier: -115
- Conor McGregor: -104
- Draw: +5000
According to FanDuel, the third battle between Poirier and McGregor almost spotted the two fighters. Poirier was very popular at -115, which means you must bet $115 to see a profit of $100. McGregor is -104, so if McGregor wins, he needs to bet $104 to get a profit of $100.
Poirier vs. McGregor 3 prop betting
- (T) KO’s Poirier: +190
- Poirier submission: +750
- Poirier decided: +600
- (T) McGregor of KO: +130
- Submitted by McGregor: +2600
- McGregor decided: +850
Poirier vs. McGregor 3 predictions
Since their series was tied in one game, it is understandable that the odds setters would put the two fighters in a deadlock. But there is a very important statistic that needs to be considered for entering the rubber game. There are 13 trilogy performed in UFC. Entering the third battle, the fighter who wins the second battle also wins the third battle 70% of the time. This can be boiled down to a few things, but the most important thing is that the fighter who won the second game figured out his/her opponent, while the loser of the second game still remembers the most recent defeat in his mind. McGregor can definitely beat Poirier’s odds, but if you are a gambler, there is really no value in directly betting on these two bets. On the contrary, prop betting will bring you the most profit.
McGregor really has a path to victory, and that is the knockout. Of the 22 victories in his career, 19 were knockouts, with only two decisions and one submission. One of the decisions was a big man against Nate Diaz at welterweight, and the other was when he defeated Max Holloway with a torn ACL. That submission was made about ten years ago before he joined the UFC. This is a knockout or bankruptcy, +130 This is the only logical game.
However, as a fighter, Poirier has shown tremendous growth and has defeated Max Holloway, Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez with a high profile, easily entering the lightweight division. It is also worth noting that McGregor is only 3-3 behind the featherweight, and his three losses are within distance. If you add to the fact that the fighter who won the second game in the trilogy also won the third game, then it makes sense to bet on Poirier. However, there is no value in placing a bet on Poirier directly. Instead, parking is the most likely route.
McGregor’s three UFC losses were due to suspensions. He was eliminated by Poirier and submitted by Nate Diaz and Khabib Nurmagomedov. Poirier is fully capable of knocking McGregor down again, but he is also fully capable of ensuring submission, although he has not achieved a real surrender victory in nine years (his surrender victory against Pettis was due to a broken rib). Playing safely with Poirier earning TKO at +190 is the best option, but a small bet on the submission victory may get a good return at +750.
Sports News Forecast: Poirier by (T)KO (+190)