Cooperstown opportunity: Jacob deGrom makes up for a late start with historical data

Jacob DeGrom is the best pitcher in baseball. This is an unofficial title, of course, but not controversial. The Mets’ ace won NL Cy Young in 2017 and 2018, and then finished third in the 2020 season shortened by the pandemic.

You know what he has done so far this year. Entering his scheduled start on Tuesday, his self-report rate is 0.95 to 14 times. Since the start of the 2018 season, he has started 90 times, his SR in these games is 1.93, 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings, and his FIP is 2.12.

These are just ridiculous numbers. historic. Unbelievable. When you think of people who act “like a Hall of Famer”, you think of what Jacob DeGrom is doing now. For Pedro Martinez, Sandy Cufax and Bob Gibson, he performed best there, just to name a few legends.

But is his position in Cooperstown safe? Let’s see.

If he retire tomorrow, will he enter the Hall of Fame?

No, he won’t. Technically speaking, deGrom is not yet qualified. This is only his eighth season in the major leagues. The minimum requirement is 10 years. He is 33 years old and didn’t make his Major League Baseball debut until more than a month before his 26th birthday. It will be described in detail later.

Cooperstown Case

Since the start of the 2018 season, we have mentioned his absurd numbers. But DeGrom did not slack off before taking over the BPIB (Best Pitcher in Baseball) cloak from Clayton Kershaw. He won the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 2014, was selected to the All-Star team in 2015, and entered the top eight in the Cy Young voting in 2015 and 2016.

Let us divide his career into four years.

2014-17 2.98 times Chapter 107 3.07 FIP 9.7K/9 4.15 K/BB 15.9 bWAR
2018-21 1.93 Times 90 GS 2.12 FIP 12.0 K/9 6.42 K/BB 24.9 bWAR
Profession 2.50 era Chapter 197 2.63 FIP 10.7K/9 5.07 K/BB 40.8 bWAR

Damn, he’s very smart, isn’t he? Even his “before” period was outstanding.

It’s not that ERA is everything, but let’s look at professional ERA and ERA+-a statistic that can be adjusted to allow comparison through the era-for several inner circle Hall of Fame pitchers: Lefty Grove, 3.06 ERA, 148 ERA+ ( 1925-41)), Bob Gibson, 2.91 ERA, 127 ERA+ (1959-75) and Randy Johnson, 3.29 ERA, 135 ERA+ (1988-2009). deGrom’s 2.98 ERA and 130 ERA+ were there, before he changed from greatness to history.

If DeGrom has been incredibly unbelievable from the beginning of his MLB career, and has performed well in the past four years, but not worthy of Cooperstown, why have a Hall of Fame, right?

Cooperstown’s hesitation

deGrom’s Cooperstown sprint is a full sprint, not a marathon. He didn’t make his Major League Baseball debut until he was 25 years old and 330 days old, which was a very late start.

Pedro Martinez has already won a Cy Young Award and a 23.5 career bWAR at the beginning of his 26-year-old season. Nolan Ryan had 822 professional strikeouts before his 26-year-old season. Jim Palmer had 79 career victories before his 26-year-old season. Tom Seaver won the Cy Young Award, a career 2.49 ERA and 25.9 bWAR in nearly 1,100 professional games before his 26-year-old season.

Let’s look at it from another angle. The list of Hall of Fame pitchers is later than De Grom’s debut in Major League Baseball, with three players. three. That’s it.

Hoyt William: Major League Baseball made its debut in 1952 at the age of 29 and 267 days.Voted for him to be 49 years old
Joe McGinty: 28 years and 29 days in 1899. Vote until 1908 (246 wins)
Modesi “Three Fingers” Brown: In 1903, 26 years and 182 days.Voted for him to be 39 years old

For most players in the Hall of Fame, this journey is a marathon, with a sprint-like extension. There are not many sprinters.

This is reflected in the overall figures. DeGrom’s career bWAR is 40.8, ranking 160th in MLB history, a few ticks higher than Danny Darwin’s 40.3. His chin number– Detailed description is here — It is 42.1, which ranks 130th in MLB history, behind David Wells at 42.4. Average bWAR/WAR7/JAWS of Hall of Fame members: 73.3/50.0/61.7. De Grom: 43.5/40.8/42.1

How did we go from rubbing shoulders with elites like Pedro and Gibson to sharing space with lesser people like Boomer and Darwin? Yes, DeGrom’s candidacy is complicated.

More Hall of Fame numbers from the deGrom baseball reference page: Black Ink, 20 (average HoF: 40), Grey Ink, 111 (average HoF: 185), Monitor, 49 (possible HoF: 100), Standards, 32 (average) HoF: 50). So far, the short career is really bad for him.

Similar Hall of Fame members

Jacob DeGrom’s career is not over yet. of course. If we are lucky, as a baseball admirer who likes to watch elite players perform at an elite level, DeGrom will live to be in his 40s. Then there is no need to ask. Oops, this shouldn’t be a problem in a few years.

However, as far as today is concerned, we are studying his career so far. You really can’t compare him to those who made his debut late, because William is a rescuer, and Brown/McGinty is a turn of the century. Therefore, we will look at two other Cooperstown sprinters: Sandy Koufax and Dizzy Dean.

It took Cofax a while to figure out how to use his incredible arm, but once he did, he was unstoppable with his opponent’s batting gesture. Pain in the elbow ended his career. Dean was unbelievable from the beginning, but the broken leg in the All-Star Game forced him to change his pitching motion when he quickly recovered from the injury, which resulted in arm problems that he could never recover. Cofax has 22 or more starts in 9 seasons; Dean has only six. deGrom currently has six.

player war War 7 jaw
Cofax 48.9 46.0 47.4
Dean 46.2 44.1 45.1
DeGrom 43.5 40.8 42.1

Closed, but not exactly there. Until you consider the 2020 season, this is a peak year shortened by the pandemic. In 12 games, his bWAR value is 2.7. Extrapolating it to 32 starting seasons, his bWAR jumped to around 7. Add it to his total, and he and Dean are there, but still slightly lower than Koufax.

Similar non-Hall of Fame members

This comparison bothers me a lot. Not because it hurt deGrom’s case, but because it revealed what I believe to be a major negligence. As of July 6, DeGrom was 33 years old and 17 days old. Johan Santana made his last MLB pitch at 33 years and 157 days. The injury is terrible.

As we discussed, DeGrom has performed well in the first eight years (26 to 33 seasons) of the Grand Slam. Santana also had a glorious eight years (from 24 to 31 years old), until injuries ruined his career. He appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot as a member of the class of 2018, but failed to get the 5% required to stay on the ballot.If you read My hall of fame writing, You may know that I am one of the few people who voted for him.

Let us compare the peak periods of those eight years.

DeGrom 40.8 bWAR 2.50 era 2.63 FIP 157 Times+ 1,254 2/3 IP 1.013 Whip 7.0 hours/9 5.07 K/BB
Santana 47.8 bWAR 2.89 Times 3.31 FIP 150 eras+ 1,670 2/3 Intellectual Property 1.067 Whip 7.4 hours/9 4.03 K/BB

It’s so fucking similar, huh? It must be added: deGrom won two Cy Young awards (in the course of his 3rd place) and three other top 8 prizes, while Santana won two Cy Young awards and four other top seven prizes.

The point is not that because Santana immediately gave up the vote, DeGrom didn’t have a chance. of course not. In most cases, the point here is: Santana was messed up by 10 votes. what. I hope the Modern Times Committee will correct its mistakes in the future.

Coopertown Forecast

Jacob deGrom (Jacob deGrom) played on his first ballot. However, I have to admit that this is a bit scary. How many times has he quit this year due to a certain disease. Every time, you just hope to get good news. So far, this has been the case.

Another Cy Young Award will almost certainly lock his place, assuming he casts for another two years to reach 10 seasons. Stay healthy, Ace.



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